Three-year integrated projections for a Local Enterprise Office, Enterprise Ireland, bank or investor submission. Every assumption written down, and every figure able to survive the question “where did that come from?”
Most people applying for funding can describe their business clearly and still cannot put a defensible set of numbers behind it. That is not a failure of effort. Projections are a specific piece of work with rules attached, and the people assessing them read hundreds a year.
What follows is what they are actually looking for, what gets applications sent back, and what I produce.
Rarely because the business is weak. Usually because the numbers cannot be followed.
| What the assessor sees | What it tells them |
|---|---|
| Revenue triples in year two with no explanation | The number was chosen to make the application work, not built from customers, prices and capacity. |
| The cash flow does not agree to the balance sheet | The three statements were prepared separately. If they do not tie, none of them can be relied on. |
| No owner’s salary in the costs | The business is only profitable because nobody is being paid to run it. |
| VAT sitting in the revenue line | Turnover is overstated by up to 23%, and the VAT payments are missing from cash. |
| The grant received the month it is approved | A misunderstanding of how the money actually arrives. More on this below. |
| One scenario only | No view of what happens if sales come in late or costs run over — which is the assessor’s job to worry about. |
Grant support is generally paid against vouched, defrayed expenditure — you pay the supplier, show the invoice and the proof of payment, and the grant is reimbursed afterwards. So you need the cash to fund the spend in the first place. Projections that show the grant landing on approval get queried immediately, and the business that assumed it can run out of money waiting.
Grant support is typically a proportion of eligible costs, commonly up to half, and you provide the rest. “We will fund it from trading” is not evidence. A bank sanction letter, a loan offer or money already in the account is. If the matched funding is not there, the application is not ready, whatever the projections say.
Local Enterprise Office grant supports are generally aimed at manufacturing and internationally traded services, with limits on employee numbers. Retail, personal services, professional services and construction are usually outside scope for the main grants. Rules vary by office and change, so confirm with your own LEO first — their initial advice is free and it is the cheapest hour you will spend.
A grant body wants to know whether the project does what you say. A lender wants to know whether the business can service the repayments in a bad month. Same three statements, different emphasis, and the sensitivity analysis is what they turn to first.
A spreadsheet you own and can change, and a written document you can submit.
| Component | Detail | Why it is there |
|---|---|---|
| Statements The three, integrated | Profit and loss | Monthly for year one, then years two and three. |
| Balance sheet | Shows what the business owns and owes at each year end. | |
| Cash flow | Ties to the bank line on the balance sheet. If it does not tie, it is wrong. | |
| Support The working behind it | Assumptions schedule | Every rate, price, volume and payment term in one place, each with its source. |
| Funding and repayment | Grant, matched funding and any loan, with drawdown timing and repayments modelled. | |
| Sensitivity | What happens if revenue is 20% behind or costs run over, and when cash runs out if it does. | |
| Output What you submit | Written commentary | The numbers explained in plain English, in a form you can put into the application. |
| The model itself | Yours to keep. Change an assumption and everything updates — useful when they come back with questions. |
No, and be wary of anyone who says otherwise. Projections do not make a weak project fundable. What they do is stop a sound project being turned down or delayed because the numbers could not be followed, and they mean you are not caught out when you are asked where a figure came from.
No. I do the financial section. The business case, the market and the project description are yours, and they read better in your own words. I will tell you where the narrative and the numbers contradict each other, which is a common reason for a query.
Your last set of accounts if you have them, recent bank statements, what you plan to spend and on what, your current prices and costs, and anything the funder has already told you. If you are pre-trading, we build it from costed assumptions instead.
Yes for a standard three-year set as described. It is fixed and agreed in writing before I start. If something unusual is involved — several entities, foreign currency, a complex funding structure — I will tell you before starting, not afterwards.
Normally about ten working days from having what I need. If you are against a deadline, say so at the start and I will tell you honestly whether it can be met.
Expect it, and it is not a bad sign. You keep the model, so a changed assumption flows through everything. I will deal with questions on the figures I prepared as part of the fee.
Twenty minutes on the phone, no charge. Tell me the funder, the deadline and roughly what you are spending, and I will tell you whether the projections are the thing standing in your way — and if they are not, I will say that.